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On October 29, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China reviewed and approved the "Recommendations of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and Long-term Goals for 2035" ( (hereinafter referred to as "Recommendations"). The "Recommendations" propose thatpromote a new type of urbanization centered on people, strengthen the renovation of old urban communities and community construction, and promote urbanization construction with county towns as an important carrier...
Since 2020, the central level has issued many documents to promote the transformation of old communities in cities and towns. The Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other departments have actively responded, emphasizing the promotion of the transformation of old communities from all aspects, and introducing encouraging measures, including "Incorporate the renovation of old urban communities into the support scope of special bonds" and "encourage real estate development companies to participate in the renovation of old communities" and other contents.
On July 20, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions on Comprehensively Promoting the Renovation of Old Urban Residential Areas" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"). The "Opinions" clearly stated that in 2020, 39,000 old urban residential areas will be newly renovated, involving nearly 7 million residents; Institutional framework, policy system and working mechanism; by the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period (the end of 2025), combined with the actual conditions of various places, we will strive to basically complete the task of rebuilding old urban communities that need to be renovated before the end of 2000. Statistics from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development show that there are nearly 160,000 old communities across the country, involving more than 42 million residents and a construction area of approximately 4 billion square meters. Data from the Mingyuan Real Estate Research Institute shows that conservative estimates require at least 4.54 trillion yuan to be invested in the renovation of old communities in China; and according to calculations by Qiu Baoxing, former deputy minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the market space for the renovation of old communities may reach 5 trillion yuan. Yuan.
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Xiong Yuan, chief macro analyst at Guosheng Securities, said, “Superimposing the current situation of housing for living and not for speculation,In the context of tightened housing reform, the renovation of old communities can be used as a major way to stabilize investment and partially hedge against the decline in investment." As a part of real estate investment, the importance and urgency of renovation of old communities are gradually highlighted at the moment. < /p>
In 2020, 39,000 old urban communities will be newly renovated, doubling the number last year. Some experts believe that driven by the renovation of old communities, real estate growth is expected to accelerate significantly in the second half of the year, and real estate investment is expected to grow by about 5% throughout the year. Recently, Dongguan, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other cities have successively announced the progress of urban renewal projects and clarified future transformation plans. It is reported that many real estate companies have actively signed urban renewal projects (urban renewal projects involved by real estate developers include urban village development, renovation of old communities, renovation of old buildings, etc.), such as Shoudai Group, China Overseas Real Estate, R&F Real Estate, Kaisa Group, etc.
The scale of investment in the renovation of old communities is considerable, and the demand for funds is very urgent. In addition to real estate companies actively investing, some financial institutions and social forces are also taking action. On July 17, China Development Bank and China Construction Bank signed strategic cooperation agreements with 5 provinces and 9 cities respectively. They plan to provide a total of 436 billion yuan in loans to these 5 provinces and 9 cities in the next five years, focusing on supporting old urban communities where market forces are involved. Renovation project. At the same time, the executive meeting of the State Council proposed the establishment of a mechanism for the government, residents and social forces to reasonably share reconstruction funds. The central government will provide subsidies and local government special bonds will be tilted to encourage social capital to participate in reconstruction operations. The "Opinions" mentioned above also pointed out that local governments are supported to raise funds for reconstruction through the issuance of special local government bonds.
Currently, various places are exploring new mechanisms for the renovation of old communities. With the gradual expansion of the scale of implementation of renovation of old communities, coupled with the tilt of policies and the enhancement of financing support, it can be predicted that there will be more and more projects in the future. Capital power participates in the renovation of old communities.
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From the "14th Five-Year Plan" proposed to strengthen the renovation and community construction of old urban communities, it can be seen that the renovation of old communities that taps the potential stock will become one of the focuses of the development of the real estate market in the next five years. As a link in real estate investment, the renovation of old residential areas will drive demand upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, such as steel and cement in the upstream, and decorative coatings, ceramic tiles, hardware, furniture, home appliances and other industries in the downstream.
The renovation of old residential areas is large and wide-ranging, including corridor repair, home decoration and renovation, access control renovation, road maintenance, renovation and decoration of exterior walls, etc., all of which have generated demand for building materials including ceramic products. For example, renovating and decorating exterior walls will bring benefits to ceramic companies that produce exterior wall tiles and ceramic dry-hanging curtain walls. Corridor repairs and home renovations will increase the demand for wall and floor tiles.According to the demand, thick bricks and paving stones are needed to transform the public environment of the community...
According to AVC data assessment, judging from the output value structure of the residential decoration market, the old and second-hand house renovation market accounted for more than 40% in 2019 and will exceed 42% in 2020. The proportion of the rough commercial housing market continues to decline. It is expected to be slightly lower than 23% in 2019 and may drop to 17.6% in 2020. The rough housing market will also be lower than 37% in 2020. It can be seen that the renovation of existing houses, especially the renovation demand brought by the renovation of old communities, will gradually become the main market for ceramic construction companies in the next few years.
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"Spring River Plumbing Duck Prophet." The terminal ceramic tile dealers have already had a deep understanding of the gradual increase in decoration demand brought about by the renovation of old communities.
In September 2018, during the terminal market research of China Ceramics Network Shanghai Station, Yang Huirong, the general agent of Shunhui Ceramics in Shanghai, revealed that more than 50% of its store sales were contributed by the old house decoration market, and this The proportion continues to rise, and many Shanghai ceramic tile dealers also agree that "old house decoration is a market that cannot be ignored for Shanghai ceramic tile sales."
In November 2019, a reporter from China Ceramics Network learned during a terminal market survey at Qingdao Station that the ceramic tile retail market in Qingdao is mainly for the renovation of old houses. More and more old houses in Qingdao have reached the age of "renovation". In order to pursue living comfort, many owners choose to renovate them, thus creating retail demand for ceramic tiles.
In April this year (2020), Wuxi Eagle Ceramics dealer Li Senlin also said in an online interview with China Ceramics Network that the decoration demand brought about by the renovation of old communities is gradually growing. As for the market share of ceramic tiles and bathroom ware, How much of the cake you get depends on the dealer's business model and convenience.
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At present, China's urbanization is entering an advanced stage of development. Accelerating urban renewal has been one of the key tasks in recent years. Promoting the renovation of old communities is an important measure to improve residents' living conditions and expand domestic demand. In this general environment, the renovation of old residential areas will gradually become an important market that ceramic construction companies and terminal dealers cannot ignore. It is a blue ocean worthy of attention and deep cultivation.
Author: Sitao
